I’ve been watching this develop along with many others for the past couple of days. As most tropical disturbances do, Bret began as … well, a disturbance or area of interest, then became a tropical depression, and now a tropical storm. Should TS Bret strengthen it would then become a hurricane. This is the normal life cycle of the development of a hurricane. TS Bret is not expected to become a hurricane.
Tropical systems do not always follow what is normal or expected. Some go from and area of interest straight to a tropical storm. Some even strengthen so rapidly they go from tropical depression to hurricane status by the time data is collected and updates released.
Hurricane season started on June 1st and ends on November 30th. So far for the Atlantic basin in 2011 it has been relatively quiet with only 2 named storms, Arlene and now Bret. We are no moving into what some of us call the real beginning of hurricane season, the latter part of July into the beginning of August.
Sea Surface Temperature are very warm this year, ranked in June as the 11th warmest such period on record.
This is very conducive for tropical system and hurricane formation as in any year, but more so as the oceans waters become warmer. We have a long way to go this hurricane season. It may be a slow start, but I think it will go out with a bang, or two or three, possibly four major storms impacting the U.S..
Here is the infrared satellite view of Bret. I took the liberty of circling tropical storm Bret for you.
Here are the forecast locations and max wind speeds for tropical storm Bret.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 27.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 27.7N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 28.5N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 29.7N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 30.7N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 34.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 36.5N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
Here is the forecast track map for tropical storm Bret. Not much has changed from my earlier post when Bret was still a tropical depression.
As I also mentioned in my earlier post, Bret is forecast to go out into the Atlantic and have no impact on the U.S. mainland. While this is the forecast, things can change so I’ll be keeping an eye on tropical Storm Bret. We could use some more rain to help with our current drought situation but, I dont think it will come by way of tropical storm Bret.