I mentioned this yesterday on Facebook when it was a disturbance and designated Invest 98. In a post before the one linked above I said…
“Watching a disturbed area off the southeast coast for development. Models differ, some say it will go out into the Atlantic and dissolve. Others think it will do a loop and head back north, while another thinks it will cross Florida and emerge in the Gulf of Mexico. Something to watch in the coming week.”
This tropical system is now designated as a ‘Tropical Depression’ and is forecast to become a ‘Tropical Storm’ later tonight if it hasn’t already, as some data suggest. Should it become a tropical storm, it will be named Bret.
As mentioned yesterday, computer models were all over the place on where this system would go. It now appears that it will head back North, then Northeastward over the next couple of days. It will have little to no impact on the U.S. mainland and is not expected to become a Hurricane.
From the National Hurricane Center
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI…165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH…4 KM/H…AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1010 MB…29.83 INCHES.
Edit: July 18 12:03 Am EDT — changed Bert to Bret paragraph 2 line 2 🙂