Drought Update Georgia and Southeast July 15 2011 / Tropical Moisture

Another week and little has changed since my last update on July 7th. However, I expect a better report next week as most of us in the local area have had some decent rains. Here at the house, I’ve had 1.81 inches of rain since this past Sunday. Most of this was on Sunday, a quenching 1.14 inches, then Tuesday 0.56 inches and Thursday evening 0.11 inches as of 9pm.

Here is a look at last weeks southeast map compared to this weeks map. The biggest changes for the better were in south and southeast Georgia, south Florida and north Alabama.

Heres a look at Georgia where ‘Exceptional Drought’ still covers 35.52% of the state, including some of the local area, down from last weeks 40.45%.

For the period ending July 9, our local are needs anywhere from 9 inches of rain to over 15 inches of rain to bring conditions back to normal.

The map above does not reflect the rain we’ve had this past week, or the rains we are expecting through the weekend and in to next week. If the map below holds true, hopefully the local area can pick up another, dare I say 2 to 3 inches of rain thru next Tuesday.

There is a tropical disturbance way down south around central America that will have no direct affect on our local weather. It has a 10% chance of developing into something larger and is moving west. It may re-emerge in the Pacific and develop into something, but as of yet this is undetermined.

Some computer models were developing a closed low in the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. They have since backed off, but the ingredients remain in place so I’ll monitor this over the weekend. Here is what the National Hurricane Center had to say about this area around the Gulf of Mexico in their Thursday 8:05 PM update:

DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…
AS OF 2100 UTC…A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-95W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND S ALABAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ELSEWHERE…SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 79W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH MEXICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 89W-105W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W MOVING W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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