Looking at maps and radars this morning, the Mesoscale Convective System [MCS] that has already entered northeast Georgia and northwest Alabama should arrive in our area sometime mid afternoon, 2 PM at the latest. However, the system could build out in front of the main line due to outflow, which would bring showers and storms earlier. At the same time it could slow down which I do not expect to happen, or it could speed up, which is a probability. The biggest threat will be winds in excess of 50 MPH. There is also probability of large hail with the stronger storms. We can also expect frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Behind this first round of storms, yet another area of showers and storms have organized closer to the front in Missouri, which will follow the first MCS and bring the threat of damaging winds and hail through the evening. Already this area has formed a large bow on radar which is indicative of strong winds. This should clear our area before midnight tonight.
Below is what the Storm Prediction Center has out-looked for our area today. A slight chane of severe storms with a 15% chance of damaging winds and a 5% chance of hail. Remember when we speak of chances in percentage, this means greater than 100%.
Via the Storm Prediction Center:
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MODEST…THE FRONT AND OTHER WEAK/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DIURNAL UPSWING OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. WITH TIME…MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT /15-30 KT 500 MB/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE ORGANIZATION/PROPAGATION OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT FOCUSED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
You can view radars from the area here on the Local / Southeast / US Radar page. Or use your favorite source.
Disclaimer: I am not a Meteorologist. The above is for informational purposes and should not be used to make life saving decisions.