TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY STORMS JUST BELOW SUPERCELL CRITERIA

I thought I would mention this to bring awareness of the developing situation over the next couple of days. This does not mean anything will happen, just making you aware, the potential is there.

The National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA has some interesting wording in their forecast for today through Thursday, as the title of this post alludes to. They have kept this wording in their forecast since 2 AM this morning. Tornadoes are not expected, but with the possibility of 75 MPH winds, who needs a tornado. 75 MPH winds are 1 mph over what is considered a category 1 Hurricane at 74 MPH.

Though these storms will be scattered much like we’ve had in the past, if you happen to be caught in one be aware of what is happening. Locally in past days 40 and 50+ MPH winds have caused damage. With the ground being as dry as it is and stress on trees from previous winds, it wont take much for more to be uprooted and dry limbs snapped.

Here is what the NWS from PEACHTREE CITY GA has stated thus far today. BOLD text below added by cataulagawx

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED AND THURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGS AROUND 25KTS BOTH DAYS…BELOW BORDERLINE FOR SUPERCELLS BUT NOT BY MUCH. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. IF ENOUGH LOCAL FORCING EXISTS EXPECT GOOD ROUND OF SCT SVR STORMS OVER NORTH GA ON WED AND THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES…DAMAGING WINDS TO 75 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCT STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DECENT CAPE AND 20 TO 25 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW SUPERCELL CRITERIA…BUT DAMAGING WINDS…NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL…AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 740 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011/

CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCT STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DECENT CAPE AND 20 TO 25 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW SUPERCELL CRITERIA…BUT DAMAGING WINDS…NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL…AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

Supercells are the type of storms that usually and frequently produce tornadoes. However at this time, I do not see that threat here locally.

Today for our area, the Storm Prediction Center mentions;

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES…WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A RISK OF SCATTERED ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

These are the types of storms we have seen in the past days and weeks, and what we can expect through Thursday of this week.

Here are a couple quick safety tips:

This first one comes from past frequent traveling experience. If you are driving and can barely see because of heavy rain, reduce your speed but continue driving, moving. Make your way to the nearest place you can safely get completely off the road. Do not pull off on the shoulder of the highway or road. I have seen many vehicles rear-ended because of others behind you that are experiencing the same thing, they cant see.

Keep a safety kit in your car. You can find many places on the internet that can tell you the kinds of things you need in one. During the summer one of the most important things you can have in your vehicle is water. For both drinking should you become stranded and for refilling your vehicles coolant should it over heat, allowing you to get somewhere for proper servicing.

As mentioned in the first tip, get off the road. If however you feel this is not something you are comfortable doing, do not park under any trees or road signs. These as you may have heard can be blown over on to your vehicle, causing damage,injury, even death.

Have a good day, be safe in anything you do, and watch the other guy.

Ed

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