But first …. If you were up around 2:15 this morning, you may have caught the brief shower that passed through the area. I wasn’t up, it woke me, I sleep lightly. You can expect more of these pop-up showers as the system discussed below makes it way to the area.
On to the severe potential ….
This past Friday I mentioned “it appears the further north, the stronger these storms will be”, this still appears to be the case for the local area. However … this does not mean the local area will not see strong to severe storms. Models are still showing this system has the potential of damaging winds, hail, and the capability of spawning a tornado.
None of this is set in stone as we are still 48+ hours away from the occurrence of this event. We are right on the fringe as models show areas to the south of the local area having a more stable environment as the front moves closer to the area. This does not mean those areas wont see strong storms. So don’t let your guard down.
One thing the models [that I use] have done as they get a better handle on this system, they show it coming through the local area earlier that previously forecast. It’s looking more likely the worst of the weather will move through the local area late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, clearing the area early Thursday morning. Thats not to say we wont be seeing any severe weather before the front pushes through, or after with the unstable atmosphere around capable of some regeneration.
Here is the latest convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Pay extra attention to the second image below showing a ‘Hatched Area’ with a 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather.
Previous look at this system April 24, 2011 Here