Models still indicating probable severe weather heading for our area Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. The exact timing is still in question, so keep abreast of the situation.
Best guess at this time:
Latest run of the GFS shows the brunt of activity around 11 pm ET Wednesday, indicating strong possible damaging wind and potential hail as main features. Cape and helicity values are highest at this time with cape:1338, Helicity:418, a Cins of 8, and an energy helicity index of 3.495525. Due to these factors, and a looping hodograph, a rogue tornado at this time can not be ruled out entirely with the passage of this system, which will spawn supercells ahead of the approaching cold front.
Here’s the Skew-T:
Temps will be warm throughout the day and remain in the low to mid 80’s as the system approaches. Dewpoints ahead of the front will be pushing 70° and humidity will be high around 95 to 100%, adding moisture and helping destabilize the atmosphere.
Here are the current convective outlooks for day 3 and day 4 issued by the Storm Prediction Center:
With all this said, things can change for the better, or worse. I’ll be keeping an eye on this system.
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologists.