Snow in the Southeast Jan. 7-8 2010

FINAL Update 11:10 AM EST 1/8/2010:
Scroll Down for Previous Reports

Here at the homestead we didn’t have any appreciable amounts of winter precipitation, but we did see some. At about 4:45 pm on 1/7/10 we had our first round with a rain/ sleet mix that lasted about 10 minutes. Around 7:00 pm came a heavy sleet. The next observation was about 10:30 pm with another round of heavy sleet. This changed to a moderate sleet /snow mix about 10:40 pm, and back to a rain /sleet mix about 10:45 pm. Around 11:30 pm the precipitation was all snow which fell lightly for about 20 minutes. During this observational period there was little to no accumulation. Surfaces that did accumulate a slight coating were, automobiles, trashcans, mailbox, walkway, and steps. Needless to say, this was a none event for my area. The timing of cold air and moisture was by my estimation, was off by about 2-3 hours. I expect we will receive a measurable snow sometime this winter season. Who knows ?

________________________________

Update 3:45 PM EST 1/7/2010:
Scroll Down for Previous Reports

At 2:43 PM EST today it began to Sleet in my area of west central Georgia. No Rain or Snow as of yet, just sleet. For the past hour it has been coming down in pockets or waves. Sleet for 10 minutes then about a 5 minute break then starts the cycle again. I was out splitting some firewood during this time. I have no images or video to show, and this time unlike all the past occasions it snowed down here, I don’t know if I will. The damn batteries don’t seem to want to take or hold a charge. Strike that, I know they wont. I’ve had them on charge since last night. I will borrow a camera or batteries if any snow accumulates in my area to document the event. Anyway, I haven’t looked at any radars yet, except for the ones below. Just getting this out so you know whats going on in my area.

Check back for updates…..

________________________________

Update 5:45 AM EST 1/7/2010:
Scroll Down for Previous Reports

Snow, Sleet and rain on the way to the Southeast. Most of the advisories I’ve read this morning for Georgia say most of the area will experience a mix from along and north of a line from LaGrange to Monticello to Washington. You can see this from my previous update [ Update 8:48 AM EST 1/6/2010 ]. Also mentioned is most of this changing over to ALL snow during the evening to late evening hours as colder air begins moving in. Snow accumulation of one to two inches for north Georgia, with up to a half inch in central Georgia. The area for snow, rain sleet snow mix, and rain is subject to change as happened during the March 1, 2009 snow event in this area. [ has images], where we were forecast to get 1-3 inches and ended up getting almost 6 inches.

Computer models are irrelevant at this time. Now it’s more of a visual forecast. Here are current radar depictions of what is happening. Remember what the radar sees, isn’t always reaching the ground. This in most cases is called virga. In some instances anonmalous propagation and false echos may occur and lead you to think there is more rain or in this case snow, than there actually is.

Radar images removed since the event is over. They can be found at the links below.

Images provided by: Top – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – National Weather Service, Center – Weather Underground, Bottom – Intellicast

After the Jump see previous reports

________________________________

Update 8:48 AM EST 1/6/2010:
Scroll Down for Previous Reports

Updated Information: The NWS out of Peachtree City has issued a Special Weather Statement. Here is a Snow Map created using the latest NWS data. The area for snow, rain sleet snow mix, and rain is subject to change. Stay Tuned……

Click Image To Enlarge

via: National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA Weather Forecast Office

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
421 AM EST WED JAN 6 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-062130-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
421 AM EST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY USHERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO GEORGIA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET. AND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA...IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF
THIS LINE. THE EXACT PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS GEORGIA...
AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ISSUED.

________________________________

Update 4:06 PM EST 1/5/2010:
Scroll Down for Previous Reports

The NWS out of Peachtree City has issued a Special Weather Statement. What this means is they are more confident in computer runs predicting Snow in Georgia. Here is a Snow Map I created using the NWS data in from the Special Weather Statement:

Click Image To Enlarge

From my last report [Below] I wasn’t far off in my prediction / forecast. As I stated at that time, this, even from the National Weather Service isn’t set in stone. The area for snow, rain sleet snow mix, and rain is subject to change. Stay Tuned……

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist. This is an amateurs best guess.

via: National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA Weather Forecast Office

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078-079-
061100-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-HARRIS-TALBOT-
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY USHERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO GEORGIA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
FORSYTH TO WARRENTON. SOUTH OF THIS LINE A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE
TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THIS LINE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EXACT PATH
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS GEORGIA WILL AFFECT THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE LOW REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COAST...LIGHTER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF THE LOW TRACKS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA... HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AND END ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ISSUED.

__________

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS62 KFFC 052017
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL DOWN INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST NIGHT OF EVERYONE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA SEEING THE EXTREME COLD SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS TEMPS. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ACROSS THE STATE AS WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING
NIGHTTIME LOWS TO WARM UP BY 5 TO 10 DEGS AT MOST. OUR NEXT BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE OUR POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT ON THU. THE COLD AIRMASS
WILL STAY IN PLACE AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD START TO
SEE SNOW OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA AFTER SUNRISE THU WITH FLURRIES
EXPECTED AS FAR AS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BEFORE MIDDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA
METRO COUNTIES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ATLANTA NORTHWARD AND
ISOLATED 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA FRI MORNING WITH EVEN AREAS AS FAR
SOUTH AS VIDALIA SEEING SOME FLURRIES BEFORE THIS IS OVER.

________________________________

Update 9:34 AM EST 1/5/2010:

Models are still in disagreement but are coming around, this is expected as time shortens. The big question at this time; How much moisture will be available ? If the clipper that is to dive into the southeast is stronger, it may suppress moisture giving lesser amounts of snow. The cold air is definitely in place and will continue to be funneled in, bringing even colder temps for the weekend.

Another question is that of a surface low developing along the Gulf coast. Depending on its track and strength if it should develop, will also have an effect of available moisture. The new 60hr NAM run has more moisture with it then the 00Z NAM run at 72 hrs. So we are trending in the right direction. The latest 6Z GFS run shows better moisture feeding into the clipper. If you look at the 00Z GFS run at 66hrs and the 6Z run at 60 hrs you can see that there is more moisture being brought north into Georgia.

With that being said, here is my forecast: North Georgia can expect 2-3 inches with higher amounts in the higher elevations in the North Georgia mountains.The city of Atlanta getting 1-3 inches possibly higher amounts depending on moisture availability. South of Atlanta will see 1-2 inches to a dusting south of Columbus, Macon and Augusta. This line is not set in stone. South of this line will see a Dusting to a Rain/sleet/ snow mix with possible accumulations.

Click Image to Enlarge

Whatever the amount of accumulating snow that falls in these areas will remain due to cold temps. With possible snow melt from sun exposure this will turn to ice on roadways, making them impossible to navigate and very dangerous. Also what rain may fall over the are will freeze on surface contact. Watch for Black Ice.

Remember: The amount of snow possible over the Georgia area at this time could go either way. You may receive more or less depending on the situation and your location.

One thing to watch for is a second piece of energy that drops in here Saturday/Sunday. A decent amount of moisture is available at the 850mb level. Snow showers or snow squalls are a real possibility, where it is so cold aloft, were any moisture could be squeezed out in the form of snow. Downslope screw zones could get more snow with this than some areas wind up with on Thursday. The EURO model has 100% humidity in a 200 mile wide band from Eastern Tennessee down through NE Alabama, North Georgia and as far south as Macon Georgia.

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist. This is an amateurs best guess.

________________________________

Previous Report from Saturday Jan. 2, 2010:

It’s a little early for snow in my area, but late fall 2009 and winter 09-2010 has already brought some sleet and even flurries to the area. Beginning on January 7th, forecast maps are showing Snow for North Georgia with a mix as far south as Carroll county in west Georgia and rain south of there.

Click Image to enlarge

However, during the evening hours and into the night as temperatures begin to drop, so does the Snow Line. The map below shows a line of snow covering all of north Georgia and much of central Georgia on January 7, 2010 around 7 PM EST, with a mix farther south. The snow mix line extends from Columbus over to Macon and to the south of Augusta just north of Savannah.

Click Image to enlarge

This Map shows the snow mix line and is described much as the above, running up until 1 AM EST Friday morning January 8, 2010.

Click Image to enlarge

At around 7 AM EST Friday morning January 8, 2010 as temperatures begin to moderate, the snow mix line begins to recede north. The snow covers much of north Georgia skirting the northern suburbs of Atlanta down to Carroll county in west central Georgia. The mix line extends from around Athens in north Georgia through Atlanta, and down to Harris county in west central Georgia. Rain is beyond this line and extends to the south.

Click Image to enlarge

Much of this forecast as usual depends on where the low pressure system forms, it’s track and how much it deepens. The needed cold air is not going to be a factor at this time as it will be firmly in place for the next couple of weeks, moderating slightly in week two. In the forecast map below valid up until 12zulu Thursday January 7, 2010 we see a large area of high pressure over much of the U.S. continuing to reinforce the cold already in place. To the east of this high pressure we find a surface low / trough in the Tennessee Vally, with a developed coastal Low in the Gulf of Mexico just south of Louisiana. With Cold air in place and more being dumped southward by the High pressure system and the surface low in the Tennessee Valley, we can expect some strong winds to be associated with this system. Depending on the track and intensity of the Low in the Gulf, will determine where and how much snow the Southeast will receive.

Click Image to enlarge

This system could turn out to be a whopper, or it could be a dud for the deep southeast as far as amounts of measurable snow. I’ll keep an eye on it as I’m sure the maps / models will change throughout the week. I expect the southeast will get more than they want in the way of snow. This is due to the forecast being about seven days out and already predicting it.

While were here, here’s the Average date of first snow in Georgia, along with the earliest and latest snow has fallen in Georgia.

First Occurrence of Snow Reported between November 1st - March 31st 

Atlanta Athens Macon Columbus

Average Date January 20 January 13 January 21 January 27

Earliest Date November November November December
11, 1968 11, 1968 24, 1950 18, 1993

Latest Date March 13, March 13, March 13, March 13,
1993 1993 1993 1993

Here’s some stats on the Record Rainfall for the state of Georgia in 2009:

How Wet was 2009?

After being in a drought much of the last three years, much of north and central Georgia has received heavy rain since the end of August. So how did 2009 shape up as far as rainfall? The table below shows the normal rainfall and 10 wettest years for Atlanta, Athens, Macon and Columbus. In Columbus 2009 will be the wettest year on record, in Atlanta 2009 will be the 2nd wettest and in Macon 2009 will be the 3rd wettest.

Atlanta
Normal 50.20   inches
WETTEST
YEAR RAINFALL
1948 71.18
2009 69.43
1929 67.71
1936 66.15
1975 66.00
1920 65.04
1888 64.98
1912 64.03
1989 63.31
1880 62.70

Athens
Normal 47.83   inches
WETTEST
YEAR RAINFALL
1929 72.37
1964 71.42
1936 66.71
1948 66.44
1967 66.16
1994 63.84
1963 63.08
1975 62.04
1901 61.89
1900 61.22

Macon
Normal 45.00   inches
WETTEST
YEAR RAINFALL
1929 67.80
1912 61.86
2009 61.54
1923 61.50
1928 60.71
1994 60.69
1953 58.18
1992 58.03
1959 57.81
1947 55.86

Columbus
Normal 48.57   inches
WETTEST
YEAR RAINFALL
2009 80.20
1964 73.22
1966 69.93
1971 64.47
1975 63.36
2005 62.51
1992 60.85
1973 59.81
1953 59.05
1991 57.38

Source of Images and Table of wettest via: National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office – Peachtree City, GA…and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s – National Weather Service Thanks for the use.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s